Roulette Physics Formula
2021年11月28日Register here: http://gg.gg/x2cbj/1
The physics approach. In their 2012 paper, Predicting the outcome of roulette, Michael Small and Chi Kong TseThe come to these conclusions: First, deterministic predictions of the outcome of a game of roulette can be made, and can probably be done in situ. Hence, the tales of various exploits in this arena are likely to be based on fact. Apr 27, 2019 Probabilities for Roulette. Since the spaces are the same size, the ball is equally likely to land in any of the spaces. This means that a roulette wheel involves a uniform probability distribution. The probabilities that we will need to calculate our expected value are as follows. Firstly a study was made by myself and Formulas invented and tried to replicate the exact data that was observed empirically for level and tilted wheels. Here is some early experimental roulette physics, some of the formulas are invented, but lend themselves to the problem at hand.
*Roulette Physics Formula Definition
*Roulette Physics Formula Sheet
Imagine walking into a casino with a computer strapped to your chest. Solenoid electromagnets thump against your body telling you where to place your bet on the roulette table. Suddenly, you start getting electric shocks. You rush to the toilet to undertake emergency repairs, hoping that the casino staff do not realise what is happening.
In the late seventies, graduate student Doyne Farmer and colleagues did just that – with purpose-built computers that could predict where a roulette ball would land. The project, described in the book The Newtonian Casino (published as The Eudaemonic Pie in the US), was, however, difficult and fraught with technical problems. The team never really found a reliable way of doing it. But decades later, is it any closer to becoming a reality?
In a game of roulette, the croupier spins a wheel in one direction and a ball in the other direction. Players then place bets on where the ball will land by choosing either a single number, a range of numbers, the colours red or black or odd or even numbers. Roulette Physics Formula Definition
Our understanding of the physics behind the movement of the ball and wheel is pretty solid – governed by Newton’s laws of motion. As the ball slows, gravity takes hold and it falls into one of the numbered compartments. It is predictable when the ball will leave the rim. However once it does, the route it takes to a numbered slot is less so. This is because the ball bounces around as it strikes various obstacles.
Every roulette wheel is slightly different. Atmospheric conditions continually change and the wheel itself has features that encourage randomness – such as the size of the frets between the numbers and the diamond-shaped obstacles that intercept the ball as it falls down to the wheel. This means that you cannot predict the exact number where the ball will land. But you only need to know which area of the wheel the ball will land and you can gain a massive advantage over the casino – more than 40%. This is a huge swing from the 5.26% margin that US casinos have over players – often referred to as the house edge. In Europe it is only 2.7%, as the wheel has only one zero (a US wheel has two zeroes).Sweaty experimentsRoulette Physics Formula Sheet
When Farmer and his team entered the casino for the first time, two people were wearing computers. One had a computer built into his shoes, with the task of inputting data by tapping switches under the toes. This computer performed two main functions. One was to adjust parameters for each wheel before a game, such as the rate at which the ball and wheel slowed down, and the velocity of the ball when it fell off the track. They also had to determine whether the wheel exhibited any tilt.
The second job was during live play. The player with the shoe computer tapped the toe switches each time a certain point (typically the double zero) on the wheel passed by and also when the ball passed by. Using this information, the program could calculate the speed of both the wheel and the ball – thus knowing when the ball would start to fall. Knowing the relative positions of the ball and the wheel meant that a prediction could be made about where the ball would finally land. The computer then had to transmit the prediction to the person wearing the second computer. This was achieved by weak radio signals.
The second computer, strapped to someone else, received the radio signals and conveyed this information to the player by the solenoid electromagnets that thumped that player’s stomach. A code had been developed which relayed the predicted number, with the player placing bets on that number and several numbers either side to account for the randomness. In order that the casinos could not easily see what they were doing, the team altered their betting patterns slightly. For example, not betting on all the consecutive numbers.
However this never gave them the 40% advantage observed in the lab – mainly due to technological problems such as short circuits caused by sweating, wires becoming loose and lost radio connections.
It took several years for the team (which now comprised about 20 people who’d worked on the project in varying degrees) to develop an improved computer system. Both computers were now in custom-built shoes. This could protect the operator from being electrocuted but would also make it harder for the casino to detect. The other innovation was that the computers were set in resin blocks, with only the toe-operated switches and the solenoids that now drummed against the feet, being visible. This was to try and combat the problems such as loose wires and sweating.
They then entered Binion’s casino in Las Vegas ready for an all-out assault. Once the parameters had been set, the first prediction was to bet in the third octant – which included the numbers 1, 13, 24 and 36. The ball landed in 13 and the team got paid off at 35-1. The years of work looked promising, but the solenoids eventually started to act randomly, so the accurate predictions from one computer were not being transmitted to the other. The team suspected it was due to the electronic noise present in casinos. Eventually they had no choice but to abandon the idea.Would it work today?
The main issue in the late seventies and early eighties was that the team had to build their own computers from scratch, literally – they had to design the computer, buy all the components and get busy with a soldering iron. These days, the computers are readily available, as the following video shows.
Technology has evolved. These days, all the required processing power could be fitted into a single unit. You could imagine a system based on a mobile phone where the camera videos the ball and the wheel and image processing software extracts the relevant data so that the prediction software can calculate the final position of the ball.
But certain challenges still remain. If several people are involved, which is the best way to avoid detection, how can you work as a team and pass data? Perhaps the use of free wifi in many casinos could be a solution? Another problem is how to best hide the fact that you are trying to use an electronic device to predict where the ball will land, when you need to input data and receive the prediction. Here, suitably connected glasses may be one get around, used in tandem with toe-operated switches.
The hardest challenge, however, is the casino itself. They are certainly unlikely to simply let you have a camera pointed at the roulette wheel, especially if you are winning. If they did, they would be likely to ask you to leave and as it is often illegal to use such devices. But with a little creativity it may not be long before scientists prove they are able to outsmart casinos.
When it comes to casinos, it’s no secret that the house always wins. And while roulette might be one of the most popular of the Vegas games, it’s also got some of the worst odds. Unless you have an uncanny knowledge of physics, that is.
Back in the ’70s, a mathematician called J. Doyne Farmer famously built a machine that allowed him to skew the odds of roulette so significantly in his favour that he’s since been banned from all the casinos in Nevada. And now a colleague has just told the internet how it works.
Before we get started, let’s make it very clear that we’re not endorsing gambling (or using science to do anything illegal). But there’s some pretty bad-ass physics and statistics to be learned here.
The new insight into the roulette-beating machine was revealed over on Quora this week, when someone asked the world wide web ’What do physicists know that lets them win at casinos?’
The top-voted answer came from Richard Muller, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, who admitted that a colleague of his once built a device that allowed him to beat the roulette table.
As Muller explains:
’It worked as follows: to encourage people to bet at roulette, it has been traditional to allow bets to be made after the wheel is spun and the ball is flung, but only before it begins to drop. In that second or two, there is enough information to allow a measurement and computation that will, for example, double your odds of winning.
If the computation simply rules out half of the wheel as unlikely, then the odds jump up highly in your favour. Whereas before, your odds of winning might be 98:100 (so you lose), if you exclude half of the numbers, your odds become 196:100; you win big!
You don’t have to predict the number where it will fall. You only have to increase your odds by 3 percent to go from losing on average to winning on average.’
With that in mind, Muller explains that the machine worked by attaching a switch to the player’s toes. The player would tap one switch each time the ball completed a full spin, and the other switch each time the wheel spun.
From that data, a small pocket computer could calculate the odds and let him know, via a tap on the leg, where he should place his bet. All in the small window of time before the ball stops spinning.
Of course, to figure this out, he first had to calibrate his device using a real casino roulette wheel, which he did by buying his own wheel and testing it in his garage before hitting the tables.
’The casinos don’t have the right to search you, so how can they guard against devices such as that?’ writes Muller. ’To do that, they have lobbied to make a law that they can exclude any person without cause. They choose to do that only when they see someone consistently beating the odds. They can’t get their money back, but they can stop losing .. Indeed, my friend (who was then a gradate student at Berkeley) was put on the list.’
To be clear, Muller doesn’t specify that he’s talking about Farmer in his answer, but the story definitely matches up with Farmer’s famous casino scam.
And for all the doubters out there, this isn’t just a science urban legend. Back in 2012, researchers Michael Small from the University of Western Australia, and Chi Kong Tse from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, published a paper that showed for the first time in a peer-reviewed journal how this process works.
The team was able to demonstrate that simply knowing the rate at which the wheel and ball are spinning - before the ball starts bouncing and everything gets random - is enough to skew the odds.
In fact, by using a system similar to Farmer’s where they recorded each time the ball or wheel passed a certain point, they showed that they could win on average 18 percent of the time - well above the negative 2.7 percent currently expected from a random bet.
’Knowing the initial conditions allows you to beat the odds,’ said Small at the time. ’In some cases you can beat them quite significantly.’
The release of that publication actually prompted the first public response from Farmer about his machine, and he admitted that their technique was very similar to the one he’d used in his device - except that Small and Kong Tse had assumed that the main force slowing the ball down was friction with the rim, whereas he’d calculated that it was air resistance.
So does using physics to outsmart the house pay off? It can.. until the casino figures out what you’re up to and bans you for life, as was the case with Farmer, who definitely didn’t get rich off his scheme.
’He says he almost made enough money to pay for the roulette wheel he had purchased to perfect his instrument at home before going out ’into the field’,’ recalls Muller. Damn.
Register here: http://gg.gg/x2cbj/1
https://diarynote.indered.space
The physics approach. In their 2012 paper, Predicting the outcome of roulette, Michael Small and Chi Kong TseThe come to these conclusions: First, deterministic predictions of the outcome of a game of roulette can be made, and can probably be done in situ. Hence, the tales of various exploits in this arena are likely to be based on fact. Apr 27, 2019 Probabilities for Roulette. Since the spaces are the same size, the ball is equally likely to land in any of the spaces. This means that a roulette wheel involves a uniform probability distribution. The probabilities that we will need to calculate our expected value are as follows. Firstly a study was made by myself and Formulas invented and tried to replicate the exact data that was observed empirically for level and tilted wheels. Here is some early experimental roulette physics, some of the formulas are invented, but lend themselves to the problem at hand.
*Roulette Physics Formula Definition
*Roulette Physics Formula Sheet
Imagine walking into a casino with a computer strapped to your chest. Solenoid electromagnets thump against your body telling you where to place your bet on the roulette table. Suddenly, you start getting electric shocks. You rush to the toilet to undertake emergency repairs, hoping that the casino staff do not realise what is happening.
In the late seventies, graduate student Doyne Farmer and colleagues did just that – with purpose-built computers that could predict where a roulette ball would land. The project, described in the book The Newtonian Casino (published as The Eudaemonic Pie in the US), was, however, difficult and fraught with technical problems. The team never really found a reliable way of doing it. But decades later, is it any closer to becoming a reality?
In a game of roulette, the croupier spins a wheel in one direction and a ball in the other direction. Players then place bets on where the ball will land by choosing either a single number, a range of numbers, the colours red or black or odd or even numbers. Roulette Physics Formula Definition
Our understanding of the physics behind the movement of the ball and wheel is pretty solid – governed by Newton’s laws of motion. As the ball slows, gravity takes hold and it falls into one of the numbered compartments. It is predictable when the ball will leave the rim. However once it does, the route it takes to a numbered slot is less so. This is because the ball bounces around as it strikes various obstacles.
Every roulette wheel is slightly different. Atmospheric conditions continually change and the wheel itself has features that encourage randomness – such as the size of the frets between the numbers and the diamond-shaped obstacles that intercept the ball as it falls down to the wheel. This means that you cannot predict the exact number where the ball will land. But you only need to know which area of the wheel the ball will land and you can gain a massive advantage over the casino – more than 40%. This is a huge swing from the 5.26% margin that US casinos have over players – often referred to as the house edge. In Europe it is only 2.7%, as the wheel has only one zero (a US wheel has two zeroes).Sweaty experimentsRoulette Physics Formula Sheet
When Farmer and his team entered the casino for the first time, two people were wearing computers. One had a computer built into his shoes, with the task of inputting data by tapping switches under the toes. This computer performed two main functions. One was to adjust parameters for each wheel before a game, such as the rate at which the ball and wheel slowed down, and the velocity of the ball when it fell off the track. They also had to determine whether the wheel exhibited any tilt.
The second job was during live play. The player with the shoe computer tapped the toe switches each time a certain point (typically the double zero) on the wheel passed by and also when the ball passed by. Using this information, the program could calculate the speed of both the wheel and the ball – thus knowing when the ball would start to fall. Knowing the relative positions of the ball and the wheel meant that a prediction could be made about where the ball would finally land. The computer then had to transmit the prediction to the person wearing the second computer. This was achieved by weak radio signals.
The second computer, strapped to someone else, received the radio signals and conveyed this information to the player by the solenoid electromagnets that thumped that player’s stomach. A code had been developed which relayed the predicted number, with the player placing bets on that number and several numbers either side to account for the randomness. In order that the casinos could not easily see what they were doing, the team altered their betting patterns slightly. For example, not betting on all the consecutive numbers.
However this never gave them the 40% advantage observed in the lab – mainly due to technological problems such as short circuits caused by sweating, wires becoming loose and lost radio connections.
It took several years for the team (which now comprised about 20 people who’d worked on the project in varying degrees) to develop an improved computer system. Both computers were now in custom-built shoes. This could protect the operator from being electrocuted but would also make it harder for the casino to detect. The other innovation was that the computers were set in resin blocks, with only the toe-operated switches and the solenoids that now drummed against the feet, being visible. This was to try and combat the problems such as loose wires and sweating.
They then entered Binion’s casino in Las Vegas ready for an all-out assault. Once the parameters had been set, the first prediction was to bet in the third octant – which included the numbers 1, 13, 24 and 36. The ball landed in 13 and the team got paid off at 35-1. The years of work looked promising, but the solenoids eventually started to act randomly, so the accurate predictions from one computer were not being transmitted to the other. The team suspected it was due to the electronic noise present in casinos. Eventually they had no choice but to abandon the idea.Would it work today?
The main issue in the late seventies and early eighties was that the team had to build their own computers from scratch, literally – they had to design the computer, buy all the components and get busy with a soldering iron. These days, the computers are readily available, as the following video shows.
Technology has evolved. These days, all the required processing power could be fitted into a single unit. You could imagine a system based on a mobile phone where the camera videos the ball and the wheel and image processing software extracts the relevant data so that the prediction software can calculate the final position of the ball.
But certain challenges still remain. If several people are involved, which is the best way to avoid detection, how can you work as a team and pass data? Perhaps the use of free wifi in many casinos could be a solution? Another problem is how to best hide the fact that you are trying to use an electronic device to predict where the ball will land, when you need to input data and receive the prediction. Here, suitably connected glasses may be one get around, used in tandem with toe-operated switches.
The hardest challenge, however, is the casino itself. They are certainly unlikely to simply let you have a camera pointed at the roulette wheel, especially if you are winning. If they did, they would be likely to ask you to leave and as it is often illegal to use such devices. But with a little creativity it may not be long before scientists prove they are able to outsmart casinos.
When it comes to casinos, it’s no secret that the house always wins. And while roulette might be one of the most popular of the Vegas games, it’s also got some of the worst odds. Unless you have an uncanny knowledge of physics, that is.
Back in the ’70s, a mathematician called J. Doyne Farmer famously built a machine that allowed him to skew the odds of roulette so significantly in his favour that he’s since been banned from all the casinos in Nevada. And now a colleague has just told the internet how it works.
Before we get started, let’s make it very clear that we’re not endorsing gambling (or using science to do anything illegal). But there’s some pretty bad-ass physics and statistics to be learned here.
The new insight into the roulette-beating machine was revealed over on Quora this week, when someone asked the world wide web ’What do physicists know that lets them win at casinos?’
The top-voted answer came from Richard Muller, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, who admitted that a colleague of his once built a device that allowed him to beat the roulette table.
As Muller explains:
’It worked as follows: to encourage people to bet at roulette, it has been traditional to allow bets to be made after the wheel is spun and the ball is flung, but only before it begins to drop. In that second or two, there is enough information to allow a measurement and computation that will, for example, double your odds of winning.
If the computation simply rules out half of the wheel as unlikely, then the odds jump up highly in your favour. Whereas before, your odds of winning might be 98:100 (so you lose), if you exclude half of the numbers, your odds become 196:100; you win big!
You don’t have to predict the number where it will fall. You only have to increase your odds by 3 percent to go from losing on average to winning on average.’
With that in mind, Muller explains that the machine worked by attaching a switch to the player’s toes. The player would tap one switch each time the ball completed a full spin, and the other switch each time the wheel spun.
From that data, a small pocket computer could calculate the odds and let him know, via a tap on the leg, where he should place his bet. All in the small window of time before the ball stops spinning.
Of course, to figure this out, he first had to calibrate his device using a real casino roulette wheel, which he did by buying his own wheel and testing it in his garage before hitting the tables.
’The casinos don’t have the right to search you, so how can they guard against devices such as that?’ writes Muller. ’To do that, they have lobbied to make a law that they can exclude any person without cause. They choose to do that only when they see someone consistently beating the odds. They can’t get their money back, but they can stop losing .. Indeed, my friend (who was then a gradate student at Berkeley) was put on the list.’
To be clear, Muller doesn’t specify that he’s talking about Farmer in his answer, but the story definitely matches up with Farmer’s famous casino scam.
And for all the doubters out there, this isn’t just a science urban legend. Back in 2012, researchers Michael Small from the University of Western Australia, and Chi Kong Tse from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, published a paper that showed for the first time in a peer-reviewed journal how this process works.
The team was able to demonstrate that simply knowing the rate at which the wheel and ball are spinning - before the ball starts bouncing and everything gets random - is enough to skew the odds.
In fact, by using a system similar to Farmer’s where they recorded each time the ball or wheel passed a certain point, they showed that they could win on average 18 percent of the time - well above the negative 2.7 percent currently expected from a random bet.
’Knowing the initial conditions allows you to beat the odds,’ said Small at the time. ’In some cases you can beat them quite significantly.’
The release of that publication actually prompted the first public response from Farmer about his machine, and he admitted that their technique was very similar to the one he’d used in his device - except that Small and Kong Tse had assumed that the main force slowing the ball down was friction with the rim, whereas he’d calculated that it was air resistance.
So does using physics to outsmart the house pay off? It can.. until the casino figures out what you’re up to and bans you for life, as was the case with Farmer, who definitely didn’t get rich off his scheme.
’He says he almost made enough money to pay for the roulette wheel he had purchased to perfect his instrument at home before going out ’into the field’,’ recalls Muller. Damn.
Register here: http://gg.gg/x2cbj/1
https://diarynote.indered.space
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